At the end of the year, ChinaPhotovoltaic IndustryThe market has experienced fluctuations and the industry has been changing. Shen Wenzhong, director of the Solar Energy Research Institute of Shanghai Jiaotong University, encouraged the market with "no need to panic", indicating that the spring of the photovoltaic industry will still come as scheduled. The photovoltaic industry experienced a price drop at the end of 2023, and investor sentiment has evolved from worry, pessimism to panic and despair. Against this background, the supply and demand pattern and corporate prospects of the photovoltaic industry in 2024 have attracted much attention.
Supply and demand pattern: excess and uncertainty
In 2024, the supply of the photovoltaic industry will reach nearly 1,000GW, but the decline in capacity utilization has caused the supply and demand relationship of the entire industry to return to a state of "overcapacity". Although the growth of silicon material supply has brought about an expansion of nominal capacity, the tightening of financing and the withdrawal of cross-border enterprises have reduced the possibility of vicious overcapacity in the industry. Many companies have postponed or reduced the commissioning of some projects, and the market has some uncertainty about the actual implementation of the planned capacity in 2024.
Market prediction: slowing growth trend
In the first 11 months of 2023, my country's newly installed photovoltaic capacity increased by 149.4% year-on-year, which is an impressive achievement. However, the market growth in 2024 will face certain pressure. The industry predicts that the growth rate of global photovoltaic demand will slow down, and the growth of around 20% is already a relatively optimistic estimate. Some companies said that since the shipment volume in 2023 far exceeded expectations, the market growth rate in 2024 may be between 20% and 30%.
International Outlook: China's photovoltaic industry still dominates the world
The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that by 2024, China's photovoltaic industry chain will continue to dominate the global capacity increase and stock, and its share is expected to rise further. However, Trina Solar Chairman Gao Jifan pointed out that there are deep-seated problems behind the rapid development of China's photovoltaic industry, such as overcapacity, technical and talent shortcomings, and disorderly cross-border investment. He called on the industry to exercise self-discipline, standardize sales behavior, and avoid losses caused by price wars.
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