{"id":30459,"date":"2024-12-03T09:56:59","date_gmt":"2024-12-03T01:56:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ray-tron.com\/?p=30459"},"modified":"2024-12-03T09:56:59","modified_gmt":"2024-12-03T01:56:59","slug":"clc0071","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ray-tron.com\/en\/clc0071\/","title":{"rendered":"Photovoltaic experts analyze the recent photovoltaic market situation and answer questions about the photovoltaic market"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Q: What is the production schedule of the photovoltaic industry in December and the outlook for each major link during the Spring Festival?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A: The actual output of polysilicon in December is expected to be 94,600 tons, down from 111,000 tons in November. Among them, the overall output of leading polysilicon companies was affected by production cuts, but two small companies stopped production due to their own reasons, which had a smaller impact. It is worth noting that one integrated company has significantly increased its silicon wafer output from 2,500 tons to 5,000 tons due to good orders and increased internal production capacity. For the production schedule in January and even February, it is expected to maintain this trend.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Q: What\u2019s the situation with silicon wafers?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Answer: In terms of silicon wafers, the output in November was 40.03GW, and it is expected to rise slightly against the trend to around 42.5GW in December. Among them, the two leading companies have increased production, and the integrated enterprises increased production mainly to ensure component delivery. In addition, there are two specialized companies that are increasing production. At present, the inventory of silicon wafers is healthy, with only 27GW left, and the inventory of leading companies is mostly Class B wafers, and the inventory pressure of other companies is relatively low. Therefore, the recent transaction price center of 183-size silicon wafers has approached 1.03 yuan, and the probability of price increase is relatively high. For December, the possibility of price increase of silicon wafer N-type 183 is relatively high.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Q: Will polysilicon prices rise in the near future due to reduced production?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A: No, although the production cuts of leading enterprises may lead to a decline in overall output, due to the historical inventory pressure, the polysilicon inventory is still as high as 290,000 tons, so the price is unlikely to rise significantly. Nevertheless, since the sellers have gained a certain advantage in the signing rhythm in November and maintained the price bottom line of 40 yuan, it is expected that the price of polysilicon will be weak and stable in December and will not fall sharply.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Q: What is the production schedule for silicon wafers in January? What will the market situation of silicon wafers be like during the Spring Festival?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A: We expect the production of silicon wafers to increase in January, mainly due to the impact of the overall supply and demand balance in December. Even taking into account the impact of some companies such as Adani, the production of domestic solar cells is expected to reach about 47 to 48 GW, which will lead to a continued reduction in silicon wafer inventory. If market sentiment is good, the inventory may even drop to about 20 GW. The market price of silicon wafers is not expected to fall during the Spring Festival. Even in the traditional off-season before the Spring Festival, silicon wafers will not decline due to seasonal factors.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Q: What about the battery cells?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A: The overall battery cell market is improving, and prices are rising rapidly, especially the 183 model, which has risen to 0.28 yuan, and the battery cell inventory of each company is close to zero. In December, global battery cell production is expected to reach 50.8G watts, and some specialized leading companies such as those in Yibin, Sichuan may have reached full production. For January and February, although silicon wafer production may increase further, the conditions for increasing production of battery cells may not be strong due to the impact of component production cuts, and production is expected to decline.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Q: What about the situation of components? How has the price of glass changed?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Answer: Component prices have been relatively stable recently and have not followed the increase in silicon wafers and cells. The overall expected output of components in December may be between 45 and 47 GW, which is lower than in November, partly because leading companies have decided to reduce production to reduce inventory. At the same time, component inventory pressure still exists and needs to be maintained at around 53 to 54 GW. Glass prices have begun to rise. Taking 2.0 and 3.2 single-layer coated glass as an example, they have now recovered to a level close to the previous level after the previous decline, but a general increase in actual transaction prices has not yet been achieved. As for film, although there is an intention to increase prices, it has not yet been put into action. The price increase is mainly driven by cells and affected by component demand.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_30460\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-30460\" style=\"width: 450px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-30460 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.ray-tron.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/202412030956148.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"450\" height=\"300\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-30460\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-30460 lazyload\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ray-tron.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/202412030956148.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"450\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ray-tron.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/202412030956148.jpg 450w, https:\/\/www.ray-tron.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/202412030956148-300x200.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 450px) 100vw, 450px\" \/><\/noscript> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ray-tron.com\/en\/pvribbon\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"43\" title=\"Photovoltaic welding ribbon\">Photovoltaic welding ribbon<\/a>factory<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><strong>Q: What is the core reason for this round of battery price increase? And can it continue to rise?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A: The core reason for this round of battery price increases is mainly due to the fact that the overall battery production schedule was lower than that of components, while the component inventory has dropped significantly. In addition, domestic battery orders are driven by the Indian market, because India is the peak season for battery purchases, which provides support for domestic battery demand. As for whether the price increase can continue, it is still uncertain, but recently due to the easing of inventory pressure, the price of silicon materials has loosened, which may have an impact on market sentiment.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Q: Has the price of silicon material loosened recently? Is this loosening due to the reduction of inventory at the end of the year? Is the news about silicon material production reduction circulating in the market true?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Answer: Silicon prices have loosened a little recently, but this is not due to the end-of-year inventory reduction, but due to the previous excessive inventory pressure that caused the price to fall. It is expected that silicon prices may continue to loosen, but it will not be due to the end-of-year inventory reduction, and the leading companies have previously expanded too much due to low electricity prices. Now the loosening of silicon prices is reasonable, but it will not fall below 38 yuan\/kg. There are rumors in the market that a top 2 company in Xinjiang plans to sell 100,000 tons of 33% mixed materials at a price of 33 yuan\/kg, but this news is not true. First, this practice is inconsistent with the rhythm advocated by the industry association; second, from the perspective of interests, companies do not need to reduce prices to 33 yuan all at once. Therefore, this can dispel rumors, and it is difficult for silicon prices to fall below 33 yuan\/kg.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Q: Will the output of silicon materials continue to decrease?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A: Silicon material output will continue to decrease, but considering that it has already dropped to 94,600 tons in December, there is very limited room for further reduction, as it is close to the point where it can no longer be reduced. Although there is the possibility that some companies may reduce production beyond expectations, such as a large company in Xinjiang, it may reduce or stop production due to its heavy inventory pressure and policy restrictions, but this is not enough to cause a sharp drop in silicon material prices. It is expected that silicon material prices will hardly fall below 80,000 yuan\/ton next year.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Q: Will component prices increase, and by how much?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A: I personally tend to think that component prices will rise in December, because battery and glass prices have already risen, and the installation situation in December is good, so component prices are likely to rise. However, the specific value of the increase cannot be accurately predicted at present, because the price increase of the film has not yet been determined, and the actual delivery price of the component will be determined according to factors such as the bidding quotation. Although the standard price of 0.68 yuan may affect the delivery price of the machine, the actual increase may be a small increase on the basis of 0.68 yuan, for example, to 0.69 yuan or 0.70 yuan, but it will not be too large, because the demand in December and January is relatively weak, and the real peak season is in March and April.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Q: I would like to ask two questions about composite materials. You just mentioned that the price of glass is expected to increase in December. What is the basis for this expectation? In terms of price, what is the price of 2.0?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A: The current price of 2.0 double-layer coating is about 11.75 yuan, while the price of 3.2 double-layer coating is 21 yuan. The logic of the price increase is mainly due to the fact that the components received large orders in late November or December, and there were maintenance incidents before. However, it should be noted that the production and procurement actions of the photovoltaic industry are not strictly in accordance with the production schedule.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Q: What is the logic behind the price increase of adhesive films?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A: The logic of the price increase of adhesive film is more based on the change of overall market sentiment, rather than simply to cover costs. When market demand or component demand exceeds expectations, even if there is a certain pressure on costs, auxiliary material and main material companies will see price increases at low levels due to the good demand.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Q: Looking at the production schedule for December, is there a decline?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A: Yes, the production schedule in December declined as expected. However, the purchasing behavior of the photovoltaic industry may not be completely executed according to the production schedule. For example, even if the battery is discontinued, the pace of early procurement will be slower, because the purchase will be determined by the demand and raw material inventory of the month.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Q: What is the reason why component manufacturers have increased their purchasing efforts recently?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Answer: The component factories have recently increased their purchases because their production schedules have not been significantly reduced. At the same time, they have taken into account that the higher production volume in the first two months has consumed the inventory of glass raw materials, and they believe that the prices of auxiliary materials are already at a low level at the end of the year, so there has been an increase in purchases.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Q: Is the price increase of glass mainly based on cost transmission?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A: Cost transmission does play a role to a certain extent, but it is not the most important factor. Even though natural gas prices increased during the winter heating season, glass prices still fell in November, indicating that the main reason for the price increase is not limited to cost support. In fact, the overall production reduction of the glass industry in November, coupled with the increase in purchases by component companies based on future expectations, are the main reasons for the increase in glass quotations.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Q: Regarding adhesive films, the price of EVA has risen by about RMB 700\/ton over the past month. Can this be fully transmitted to profits, or even achieve excess profits?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A: According to the conclusion of recent reports, film manufacturers will not pass on all the cost increases of upstream raw materials to downstream, but will bear part of the impact of cost increases. Although there is a certain possibility of glass price increases, the increase will not be large, so it is difficult to fully cover the cost increases of previous raw materials.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Q: Can we simply understand that the price increase of glass is conducive to the recovery of corporate profits, while the film may suffer certain losses? Even if the overall production schedule is not ideal in December, January and February due to factors such as the Spring Festival, as long as it can exceed expectations, can it support the price recovery?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A: Yes, you can understand it this way. Although it cannot be said to be absolutely true, to a certain extent, if the actual production schedule is better than expected, it will indeed have a positive impact on the overall quotation.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Question: So, how does the policy work to eliminate obsolete production capacity?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A: When allocating quotas, the policy will take into account the degree of advancement of different production capacities and give different coefficients. For backward production capacities, the share they receive each year may not be enough to sustain their survival, so they will naturally adjust or even be forced to close.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Q: As silicon wafer production increases, is it possible to achieve the industry-wide growth target of 15% by adjusting the shipment coefficients of leading and lagging companies?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A: Although it will not directly favor a few companies, adjusting the shipment coefficient can indeed allow leading companies to gain a greater advantage in the competition. However, as far as I know, specific policy restrictions on the growth of silicon wafer production (such as not exceeding last year&#039;s X%) do not apply.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Q: For the next few years<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ray-tron.com\/en\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"14\" title=\"Photovoltaic modules\">Photovoltaic Industry<\/a>What is the production forecast for each link in the chain?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Answer: It is expected that global polysilicon production will decline significantly to 1.66 million tons in 2025, while silicon wafer production is expected to be 713GW; photovoltaic cell demand is expected to be between 600-690GW; global module production is expected to be 645GW.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Q: What about the recent discussion on energy consumption limit policies?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Answer: It is unlikely that the current energy consumption limit policy will be implemented, because this time it is more of an industry association that is in charge of regulation, and relevant government departments may take more direct measures, such as restrictions on electricity consumption and water volume, but the control of existing production capacity may not be a one-size-fits-all approach, and the standards may be relatively mild.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Q: Is it expected that a joint production cut agreement will be reached and implemented on December 5?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Answer: Although the meeting promoted and expected discussions on a joint production cut agreement, it is difficult to reach a consensus and truly implement it. We should not rely too much on gentlemen&#039;s agreements, but need to supplement them with government regulatory measures.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Question: If there is no strong policy support and the industry&#039;s ROE is only supported by industry associations, can it be stabilized?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Answer: Without strong policy support, it will be difficult to stabilize the industry&#039;s ROE relying solely on coordination by industry associations.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Q: It is difficult to predict the reasonable price and profitability of the photovoltaic industry next year, right?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Answer: It is indeed difficult to accurately predict the reasonable price and profits of the photovoltaic industry next year, because prices are affected by many factors, including voices setting price limits, and the specific position cannot be determined at present.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Question: What is your overall view on the intensity and direction of supply-side reform?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A: All parties support and actively respond to the intensity of supply-side reform, and the main concern is the extent of production cuts. All parties agree that losses should be reduced before profits can be achieved. The path is relatively clear, but the specific amount of profit needs to be judged in combination with supply and demand conditions, the cost reduction and differentiation capabilities of enterprises, and policy impacts. Supply-side reform is beneficial to the entire industry, and leading and technologically superior enterprises will be the first to improve and enter a new profit cycle. The timing of the promotion of supply-side reform may be around the two sessions, but it will also be adjusted according to actual conditions.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Q: What is the production schedule of the photovoltaic industry in December and what is the outlook for each major link during the Spring Festival? A: The actual production of polysilicon in December is expected to be 94,600 [\u2026]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[367],"class_list":["post-30459","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog","tag-367"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ray-tron.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30459","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ray-tron.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ray-tron.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ray-tron.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ray-tron.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30459"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.ray-tron.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30459\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ray-tron.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30459"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ray-tron.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30459"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ray-tron.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30459"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}